“Analyzing Economic Trends Under Bola Tinubu’s 9-Month Presidency (May 2023 – Feb 2024)”

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As Nigeria navigates through the first nine months of Bola Tinubu’s presidency, a thorough examination of economic indicators sourced from reputable institutions including the NBS, CBN, StanbicIBTC, OPEC, and NGX paints a nuanced picture of the nation’s economic trajectory.

 

**Inflation Dynamics:** Headline inflation surged by 24.5%, with food inflation following suit at 29.5%, indicating significant pressure on consumer purchasing power and household budgets.

 

**Foreign Exchange Market:** Against the Naira, major currencies witnessed remarkable appreciation, with the US dollar (+235%), British pound sterling (+241%), and Euro (+240%) experiencing substantial gains. This surge reflects volatility in the foreign exchange market, potentially impacting import-dependent sectors.

 

**Stock Market Performance:** The All Share Index (ASI) experienced robust growth, soaring by +79.3% from 55,769 to 99,980, signaling investor confidence and optimism amidst economic uncertainties.

 

**Crude Oil Dynamics:** Despite global market fluctuations, the price of crude oil exhibited a notable increase of +17.82%, climbing from $74.75 per barrel to $88.07. This uptick in oil prices has implications for Nigeria’s revenue generation and fiscal sustainability.

**Foreign Reserves:** However, foreign reserves witnessed a decline of -3.92%, dropping from $35.09bn to $33.72bn, highlighting potential challenges in maintaining currency stability and meeting external financial obligations.

 

**Manufacturing Sector:** The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered a decline of -4 points, slipping from 54.0 to 51.0, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This could be attributed to supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures.

 

**Energy Sector:** Crude oil production expanded by +10.92%, rising from 1.18mbpd to 1.32mbpd, contributing positively to export earnings and government revenue.

 

**Consumer Goods Prices:** The prices of essential commodities such as diesel, kerosene, petrol (PMS), cooking gas, airfare, and local rice witnessed significant increases, amplifying the cost of living for citizens and impacting household budgets.

 

While these economic statistics provide valuable insights into the nation’s economic performance under Bola Tinubu’s leadership, policymakers and stakeholders must remain vigilant in addressing inflationary pressures, enhancing foreign exchange stability, and fostering sustainable economic growth for the benefit of all Nigerians.


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