Nigeria Economy Contracts By -3.62% In Q3 2020-Report

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one again, Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, officially slipped into recession in Q3 after the real GDP contracted for two consecutive quarters (Q2 -6.10% and Q3 -3.62%), according to a National Bureau of Statistics report released Saturday.

According to the agency report, the cumulative Gross Domestic Product for the 9 months of 2020 stood at -2.48%.

Before now, there where several reports that Nigeria’s economy like several others in the world was battered by the coronavirus lockdown in Q2 and Q3 which shutdown commerce as well as other social and business activities.

Nigeria is also pressured by the low price of crude oil, which it mostly depends on to fund its spending.

Business activities have since resumed fully across the country which would help it record better productivity in the next two quarters and exit recession quickly.

While the Q3 negative growth data is an improvement of 2.48% points over the -6.10% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter (Q2 2020), it also indicates that growth in Q3 2020 was slower by 5.90% points when compared to the third quarter of 2019, which recorded a real growth rate of 2.28% year on year.

The NBS said the performance of the economy in Q3 2020 reflected residual effects of the restrictions to movement and economic activity implemented across the country in early Q2 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

As these restrictions were lifted, businesses re-opened and international travel and trading activities resumed, some economic activities have returned to positive growth, according to the NBS data.

A total of 18 economic activities recorded positive growth in Q3 2020, compared to 13 activities in Q2 2020.

During the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at   N39, 089, 460.61 million in nominal terms. This performance was 3.39% higher when compared to the third quarter of 2019, which recorded an aggregate of N37, 806,924.41 million.

This rate was, however, lower relative to growth recorded in the third quarter of 2019 by -9.91% points but higher than the proceeding quarter by 6.19% points.

For clarity, the Nigerian economy has been broadly classified into the oil and non-oil sectors.

The average daily oil production recorded in the third quarter of 2020 stood at 1.67 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 0.37mbpd lower than the average production recorded in the same quarter of 2019 and 0.14mbpd lower than production volume recorded in the second quarter of 2020.

Real growth for the oil sector was -13.89%  (year-on-year) in Q3 2020, indicating a sharp contraction of  -20.38% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Furthermore, real oil growth decreased by -7.26% points when compared with oil sector growth recorded in Q2 2020 (6.63%).

Quarter on quarter however, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 9.64% in Q3 2020. The sector contributed 8.73% to total real GDP in Q3 2020, down from 9.77% and 8.93% respectively recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, Q2 2020.

The non-oil sector grew by -2.51% in real terms during the reference quarter, which is -4.36% points lower than the rate recorded in Q3 2019 but 3.54% points higher than in the second quarter of 2020.

The non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), with other drivers being Agriculture (Crop Production), Construction, Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), and Public Administration. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 91.27% to the nation’s GDP in the third quarter of 2020, higher than its share in the third quarter of 2019 (90.23% ) and the second quarter of 2020 (91.07%).

According to World Bank and NBS figures, this is the second recession under President Buhari’s democratic reign and his fourth as Head of State.


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