The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria’s Q4-2017 GDP figure, showing that the domestic economy expanded for the third consecutive quarter, with real GDP growing by 1.92% y/y (vs. 1.40% y/y in the previous quarter and -1.73% y/y in Q4-2016). The growth estimate came in 8 bps and 34 bps lower than Bloomberg’s compiled average estimate of 2.0% and Cordros forecast of 2.26%. For the full year, real GDP was 0.83% in 2017, compare to -1.58% in 2016.
A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector grew by 8.38% (compared to 25.89% in Q3-2017 and -17.70% in Q4-2016). The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months period to be 1.91mb/d, 0.12mb/d lower than the 2.03mb/d reported in Q3-17, but marginally ahead of the 1.90mb/d achieved in Q4-2016.In comparing with Q3-17 showed the oil sector contracted by 25.52% representing 7.17% of total GDP (vs. 6.75% and 10.04% in the corresponding quarter of 2016 and Q3-17 respectively) during the review period. Overall, in 2017, the oil sector grew by 4.79% (vs. -14.45% in 2016).
Output in the non-oil sector expanded, growing by 1.45% y/y in Q4-2017, 178 bps and 221 bps higher than the rates recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 and in the previous quarter respectively. The non-Oil sector contributed 92.83% to total GDP, (vs. 93.25% and 89.96% in the corresponding quarter of 2016 and Q3-17 respectively). For 2017FY, non-oil GDP was 0.47%, vs. -0.22% in 2016.
A breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP shows that services grew by 0.10% y/y (vs. -2.66% y/y in Q3-17 and -1.52% y/y in Q4-16). Also, agriculture grew by 4.23% y/y (vs. 3.06% y/y in Q3-2017 and 4.03% in Q4-16) while manufacturing grew by 0.14% y/y – compared to -2.85% in Q3-17 and -2.54% in Q4-16.
In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 53.45%, 26.18%, and 20.38% of overall output growth.